The first quarter of 2026 clearly showed that the period of relatively stable logistics has ended. The market has moved into a phase of constant change, where the key factor is no longer speed or price, but the ability of businesses to manage uncertainty.
Events around the Strait of Hormuz have only intensified processes that have been developing over recent years, including the revision of global routes, the growing role of contracts, and changes in supply chain planning approaches.
Global Routes: Rising Logistics Costs Driven by Risk, Not Just Fuel
Following restrictions on shipping in the Persian Gulf region, part of the cargo flow between Asia and Europe has been redirected via the Cape of Good Hope. In practice, this means that the standard Asia–EU transit, which previously took 30–35 days, has in many cases increased to 45–60 days.
However, the key change is not only in duration, but in its unpredictability. While businesses previously operated with relatively stable timelines, in 2026 transit has become variable, with deviations of 30–50% even within the same route.
As a result, transportation costs have increased, but the main driver is no longer fuel alone. Rate formation is now influenced by several factors:
- longer voyages leading to a shortage of available tonnage
- increased insurance premiums, including war risk premium, in high-risk zones
- reduced container equipment turnover
In these conditions, integrated international logistics becomes critically important, where not only delivery itself matters, but also the ability to manage the entire supply chain, from route selection to risk control at every stage.
Daleth Group experts note that in 2026 the market has effectively shifted from a price per shipment model to a price for guaranteed execution model. In this environment, low rates without confirmed capacity increasingly mean a high risk of supply disruption.
Sea Freight: Declining Reliability and Limited Options
Another major trend is not only the increasing concentration of the container shipping market, but also the decline in service quality.
In 2026, the market is facing:
- declining vessel reliability, with schedule adherence often below 60%
- an increase in blank sailings, meaning cancelled voyages
- congestion in certain ports due to route changes
For businesses, this means:
- delivery timelines are becoming unstable
- planning requires additional buffers
- dependence on specific carriers is increasing
Under these conditions, companies are increasingly shifting from spot purchasing to contract-based models with carriers to ensure at least a basic level of supply stability.
Road Logistics: Resource Shortage and a Carrier-Driven Market
The European road transport market continues to operate under structural shortages of drivers and vehicles. The average driver age exceeds 45 years, and new workforce inflow does not compensate for attrition.
This creates a long-term model:
- steady rate increases
- limited transport availability during peak periods
- the need for advance booking
Importantly, even when fuel prices stabilize, rates do not decrease. The main pressure comes from resource shortages rather than operational costs.
Multimodal Transport: A Tool for Stability
One of the key structural shifts is the transition from single-mode solutions to multimodal schemes. The combination of sea, rail, road, and air transport reduces dependence on individual routes.
In 2026:
- the role of rail corridors through Central Asia and Turkey is increasing
- road routes in Europe are becoming overloaded
- the configuration of air freight is changing
Today, multimodal transport is no longer a tool for optimization, but a way to ensure supply chain continuity. It allows logistics to be quickly restructured depending on market conditions.
Digitalization: Faster Decision-Making
In 2026, digital solutions are no longer a competitive advantage but a basic infrastructure.
Key areas include:
- demand and capacity forecasting
- document flow automation
- real-time cargo tracking
- integration of clients into logistics processes
Digital tools reduce decision-making time from hours to minutes, which is critical in unstable conditions.
Customs clearance also plays a key role in supply chain stability. Increasing regulatory complexity, the operation of the NCTS system, and stricter documentation requirements make customs processes one of the main factors affecting delivery timelines.
Customs brokerage services are becoming a risk management tool. Errors in documentation or incorrect selection of customs regimes can lead to border delays and direct financial losses.
Environmental Requirements: A New Cost Factor
Carbon emission regulation in the European Union is moving into practical implementation. The expansion of the CBAM mechanism means that logistics without consideration of environmental factors directly affects the final cost of goods.
In practice, this means:
- the need to account for the carbon footprint of delivery
- growing customer demand for supply chain transparency
- a gradual shift toward more sustainable solutions
Daleth Group experts note that environmental factors will soon become a standard criterion for selecting a logistics partner, alongside price and timelines.
What This Means for Business
In 2026, logistics has shifted from an operational function to a part of strategic business management.
Key changes include:
- planning must account for variability rather than a single scenario
- time and financial buffers must be built into operations
- the role of long-term contracts is increasing
- rapid route adaptation is critical
Under these conditions, companies increasingly choose partners who can cover multiple areas at once, including international logistics, multimodal transport, and customs brokerage services. This reduces the number of risk points and simplifies supply chain management.
Conclusion
The year 2026 has established a new reality: logistics is no longer a stable system with predictable parameters. The market operates under constant change, where flexibility, speed of decision-making, and risk management capabilities are key.
Logistics can no longer be treated as a commodity where price is the main criterion. In the new environment, competitive advantage belongs to companies that build controlled, flexible, and diversified supply chains.
As Daleth Group experts note, in the coming years the winners will not be those who find cheaper solutions, but those who can ensure continuity and predictability of business processes.
FAQ
1. Why has logistics become less predictable in 2026?
Due to route restructuring, geopolitical risks, and shortages of transport capacity. Delivery timelines have become variable.
2. Why are rates increasing even without fuel price growth?
The key factor is the shortage of transport capacity and reduced turnover, not just fuel costs.
3. Are multimodal shipments still relevant?
Yes. They are now a fundamental tool for reducing risks and ensuring supply stability.
4. What impacts businesses most in Europe and Ukraine?
Driver shortages, border congestion, regulatory changes, and rising logistics costs.